A Strong Link

  By Henry Srebrnik, [Charlottetown, PEI] Guardian

The Balkan region of southeastern Europe is at odds over the war in Ukraine. The strong link between the Serbian and Russian Orthodox Churches remains the key instrument of Russia’s influence in the region.

Serbia, with nearly seven million people, continues to defend Moscow’s position. President Aleksandar Vucic ordered the military and the police to be prepared and continue investing in equipment and weapons, mainly from Russia. He has asserted that 85 per cent of Serbians will support Russian policies no matter what happens.

It is highly unlikely that Serbia will turn against Russia anytime soon. More than half of its oil industry is owned by Russian giants. Sputnik and other local media are financed by Russia. And two other strong Kremlin allies have powerful positions in Serbia: Interior Minister Aleksandar Vulin and Ivica Dacic, the speaker of the National Assembly.

New presidential elections in Serbia are scheduled for April 3, and Vucic remains the favorite due to his absolute control of government and media.

Bosnia-Herzegovina, with 3.3 million people, will not declare an official stand due to the veto power of Milorad Dodik, the Serbian representative on the tripartite Bosniak-Croat-Serb federal presidency of this internally deeply divided state.

Bosnia-Herzegovina suffered a catastrophic three-year civil war in the 1990s and remains as fragile as ever. Republika Srpska, a virtually autonomous half of the state, would like to secede and join neighbouring Serbia, and its leader, Milorad Dodik, could use the Russian invasion of Ukraine to realize that goal.

Dodik might proclaim the independence of Republika Srpska and its 1.3 million people, following the example of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine, and then ask for Russian protection. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, in her visit to the region, stated clearly that border changes will not be allowed in the Balkans and the EU sent an additional 500 troops to its mission in Bosnia-Herzegovina.

Montenegro, with less than one million people, is trying to form a new pro-Western government, after the former pro-Serbian one failed. Though the country is in NATO, Montenegrin Serbs have demonstrated in favor of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Pro-Belgrade parties there did not allow the formation of a new pro-Western government, even though President Milo Dukanovic stands with the West.

Three other Balkan states – Albania, Kosovo and North Macedonia – are condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine and joining Western sanctions against Moscow. Together, these three nations have seven million people. However, the president of North Macedonia, Stevo Pendarovski, has raised concerns over strong support for Russia among ethnic Macedonians.

Kosovo was wrested from Serbia in a NATO-led war in 1998-99 and declared itself a sovereign country nine years later. Serbia and Russia remain vehemently opposed to its independence and have kept it out of the United Nations. Kosovo has condemned the Russian invasion, supported Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and joined in implementing sanctions against Russia.

Serbs are the largest minority group in Kosovo, making up 7.8 per cent of the total population. They live in compact communities, mainly in the north, adjacent to Serbia.

A 2013 Agreement of Principles Governing the Normalization of Relations secured the political integration of the northern areas of Kosovo, with a Serbian majority population, into the rest of Kosovo and a measure of recognition from Serbia of Kosovo’s institutions in return for concessions to its ethnic Serbian population.

This included the establishment of a separate Association of Serbian Municipalities, comprised of 10 municipalities with a Serbian majority, with considerable autonomy in areas including planning, service provision and economic development. But this has yet to be implemented.

Kosovar President Vjosa Osmani has asked for American help in the Balkan nation’s bid to join NATO. This is already supported by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Croatian President Zoran Milanovic.

The Kosovo Ministry of Defence has asked for a permanent United States military base in the country. Pristina also expects to achieve EU candidate status this year, with Croatian President Zoran Milanovic lending his support.

A resolution was passed by the Albanian parliament supporting Ukraine and its borders. Albania delivered military equipment to Ukraine for its combat operations opposing Russia. In mid March, Albania received 351 Ukrainian refugees with the government offering to house several thousand other Ukrainians.

The divisions in the Balkans, now as always, run deep. Samuel Huntington, author of The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order, would not be surprised.