Will War Spill into Balkans?

 By Henry Srebrnik, [Moncton, NB] Times & Transcript

 

Two Communist states that contained a multitude of often hostile nationalities dissolved in the early 1990s, and the political fallout remains with us still.

Across the old Soviet Union, emerging nations faced insurgencies and attacks, in Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Russia itself and, of course, Ukraine. These “frozen conflicts” mostly remain dormant but can flare up at any time.

The same holds true for the former Yugoslavia, where Serbs, Croats, Bosnian Muslims, and Kosovar Albanians have fought over the spoils of the former state. This has led to two major wars, in Bosnia-Herzegovina in 1992-1995, and over Kosovo, in 1998-1999. They settled very little.

Has the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine awaked nationalist stirrings among the Serbs, one of the few peoples in Europe that has stood apart from the condemnations of Vladimir Putin’s attack on Ukraine?

There have been rallies in Belgrade to support Serbs’ Russian “brothers.” Many accuse Ukrainians of opposing Orthodox Christianity and supporting Kosovo, the former Serbian province whose 2008 declaration of sovereignty is recognized by more than 100 countries but still fiercely opposed by Belgrade and Moscow.

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic’s close diplomatic, trade, and defence ties to Russia meant that his overwhelmingly Orthodox country of around seven million people wouldn’t join European sanctions targeting Russia.

After the European Union and other European countries closed their airspace to Russian airliners, Air Serbia increased its routes to Russia.

Bosnian Foreign Minister Bisera Turkovic has asked that the process to approve Bosnia-Herzegovina’s status as a candidate for European Union membership be accelerated in light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Turkovic said that achieving candidate status would help consolidate Bosnia’s stability amid attempts by Serbian separatists to push for the secession of Bosnia’s Serb entity, the Republika Srpska, with Moscow’s tacit approval.

Bosnian Serbs are challenging state institutions as part of their long-time bid to secede and eventually join neighbouring Serbia. Milorad Dodik, the Serb member of Bosnia’s tripartite presidency, has threatened to turn his armed police into a revived Bosnian Serb army.

He has been pressing for Republika Srpska to secede from the military, police, and tax administration of the central Bosnian government, actions that contravene the 1995 Dayton accords.

They split the country into two highly autonomous regions, the Orthodox Serb-dominated Republika Srpska and the Bosniak-Croat federation dominated by Catholic Croats and Muslim Bosniaks, linked by a weak central government.

Bosnia has not introduced any sanctions against Russia, because the Republika Srpska supports Russia, whereas the other half of Bosnia gives Ukraine its unconditional support.

Meanwhile, on March 17 Moscow’s ambassador to Bosnia-Herzegovina, Igor Kalbukhov, warned that the country could face the same military action as has been unleashed on Ukraine if it joins NATO.

But NATO membership is not a reality for the fractured state given the current lack of consensus on the matter. If it devolved into internecine civil war again, where would the alliance stand?

Kosovar President Vjosa Osmani has asked for American support in the Balkan nation’s bid to join NATO. Osmani fears that Moscow will likely try to destabilize the region, making Kosovo’s bid to join NATO imperative.

“We express our hope and expectation that the United States will use its leadership and influence to actively support and advance the complex NATO membership process for Kosovo,” she wrote. German Foreign Affairs Minister Annalena Baerbock visited Pristina to reassure Kosovo.

The European Union mission in Kosovo has said it will nearly double its police forces in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, fearing Belgrade might use the conflict as an excuse to attack Kosovo, which declared independence from Serbia in 2008.

One sticking point has been its status. Most Western nations have recognized Kosovo’s independence, including 26 of NATO’s 30 members, but that still means it would be impossible to get the unanimous vote needed for accession.

Spain, Greece, Romania, and Slovakia -- all NATO members -- do not recognize Kosovo, which declared independence from Serbia in 2008 after the 1998-99 conflict between ethnic Albanian separatists and Serbian forces.

Kosovo currently hosts almost 3,800 NATO peacekeeping troops that came after a 78-day NATO air campaign drove Serbian troops out of the country.