French Right Surges as France Prepares to Vote

  By Henry Srebrnik, [Moncton, NB] Times & Transcript

The first round of the French presidential election April 10 proved the pollsters correct. The top two candidates, who will now advance to the April 24 run-off to decide the winner, were President Emmanuel Macron, seeking a second term, and National Rally leader Marine Le Pen, making her third attempt to enter the Élysée Palace.

With 27.6 per cent of the vote, Macron held a four-point lead over Le Pen. Socialist Jean-Luc Mélenchon came third, well ahead of the rest of the pack with 21.9 per cent of the vote. Far behind the top three, at 7.1 per cent, was the upstart Éric Zemmour, who had formed his own party, Reconquest, followed by Valérie Pécresse of the Republicans at just below five per cent.

The Fifth Republic’s two traditional governing parties since 1958 -- the Gaullist Republican right, and the Socialist left -- have virtually disappeared.

Le Pen, Zemmour and Pécresse, with a combined total of more than 35 per cent, all ran to the right of Macron, with Mélenchon the only one of the top five to his left. This may have an impact on the final vote in one week.

Issues of national identity, immigration, and Islam dominated the political debate. Macron’s right-wing rivals mounted anti-immigrant campaigns that fanned fears of a nation facing a civilizational threat by invading non-Europeans.

Macron put aside traditional campaigning until two weeks before the vote and focused on diplomatic efforts, most notably with Russia and Ukraine. He held only a single large campaign rally, didn’t engage in any direct debates with his competitors, and didn’t deliver any of the big-vision speeches for which he is known.

A month ago, Marine Le Pen was trailing Macron by 10 points and fighting for a place in the second round against him. Now she might even have a slim chance of victory.

For this, she can thank two men once seen as dangerous for her campaign: her far-right rival, Éric Zemmour, and Russian President Vladimir Putin, now an international pariah.

Zemmour’s pro-Russian attitude was a burden for him, explained Gilles Paris, an election specialist for Le Monde, “while Marine Le Pen was smart enough to pivot to a more moderate point of view.”

She distanced herself from Putin, even while her party is still paying back a 2014 loan from a Russian bank. She opposed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine but does hope Moscow could be an ally again post-war.

Prices are going up across the board in France. For Le Pen, this has paid dividends. She has spent less time talking about nationalism and focused more on the economy. This resonated with millions of people struggling to make ends meet after an increase of more than 35 per cent in fuel prices over the past year.

She has promised to reduce gas and electricity costs, tax the hiring of foreign employees to favor nationals, scrap income tax for those aged under 30, preserve the 35-hour week, and maintain the retirement age at 62, whereas Macron wants to raise it to 65.

Still, her program includes a plan to hold a referendum that would bar policies that lead to “the installation on national territory of a number of foreigners so large that it would change the composition and identity of the French people.”

Le Pen also said the French must not allow their country to “be buried under the veil of multiculturalism.” She wants to ban the Muslim hijab in public areas and advocates changes to the European Union, insisting that French law should prevail over EU rules. She has also pledged to cut contributions to the EU.

An Ipsos poll of second round voting intentions suggested Macron would win 54 per cent and Le Pen 46 per cent. Others were closer: Ifop pollster François Dabi said his 51-49 per cent estimate was the closest he had ever predicted.

Macron would win the support of a majority of centre-right voters, while Le Pen would win the backing of most of Zemmour’s electorate. Mélenchon’s voters were divided more or less evenly.

A key campaign moment in the week ahead will be a debate between Macron and Le Pen, which could sway undecided voters.