Future of the Two Koreas

By Henry Srebrnik, [Saint John, NB] Telegraph-Journal

When the Korean Peninsula was partitioned after the Second World War, the two states that emerged were in term of ideology diametrically opposed to each other. This was also reflected in their foreign policies. 

While the new Marxist-Leninist state known as the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), north of the 38^th parallel, became part of the Communist orbit, with ties to the Soviet Union and the People’s Republic of China, in the south the Republic of Korea (ROK) forged strong ties with the United States.

The 1950-1953 Korean War devastated both states, and the armistice that followed left both ruling largely the same territory they had governed prior to the conflict.

Both nations have followed very different trajectories. In the north, the DPRK morphed into a strange Communist “monarchy” ruled by the Kim family. A third generation member of the dynasty, Kim Jong-un, now rules this impoverished but nuclear-armed totalitarian country. 

The south, on the other hand, slowly evolved from a military dictatorship into a democratic and prosperous country, one that has become a global success story. 

Economically, it was transformed from one of the poorest places in the world at the end of the Korean War to a developed nation in the early twenty-first century. 

Its growing integration into the world economy was the centerpiece of the nation’s economic developmental strategy.

The DPRK periodically warns the south that it will invade and obliterate its capital, Seoul. But South Korea has an important security treaty with the United States, which commits the two nations to provide mutual aid if either faces external armed attack. There is a large American military force in the ROK. 

The north treats the U.S.as its existential enemy and threatens to attack it with nuclear weapons, which it continues to develop despite numerous UN sanctions. Largely isolated, though, Pyongyang’s only ally is China -- but Beijing’s support is uncertain.

Meanwhile, Moon Jae-in’s victory in the May 2017 South Korean presidential election may herald a departure in relations with North Korea.

Elected on a platform of renewing a dialogue with the North, in contrast with his two predecessors, Moon has been trying to avoid antagonizing Kim’s regime. 

He has proposed that North and South Korea participate as one team in the upcoming Winter Olympics, and also requested that the United States delay upcoming joint military exercises until after the Olympics.

Kim, too, seems willing to improve relations with the south. He agreed that they should open a dialogue on easing military tensions.

North and South Korea have reopened a long-suspended cross-border hotline, dormant since February 2016.

But efforts to improve North Korea’s behavior by promoting sporting or cultural links have always failed in the past. Still, the Korean people share a common history that extends back more than 3,000 years. 

So what are the possibilities of reunification of the peninsula into a single Korean nation-state? 

There are four paths to reunification: the ideal one is peaceful unification; the second is internal regime change in the north leading to the emergence of new leadership amenable to union; the third is the collapse of the Kim family regime; and the fourth and worst case is through conflict and war.

No one wants that last possibility.