It looks like Syrian dictator Bashar
al-Assad has effectively won his country’s civil war against
Islamic State militants.
The other winners? Iran and Lebanon’s
Hezbollah, for sure. But, perhaps more significant for the
international order, also Vladimir Putin.
Through military intervention and
diplomatic maneuvres, Putin made his country one of the major
players in the Syrian conflict.
A Russian presence in the Middle East isn’t
new. Imperial Russia and its successor, the Soviet Union, both
asserted interest in the region. It was not until the 1990s,
during Boris Yeltsin’s presidency, that Russia briefly
retreated from there.
When Putin came to power, he aimed to
return Russia to the Middle East, and restore Russian
influence in Syria.
In September 2015, he provided the forces
that helped, along with troops from Iran, Hezbollah and Iraq,
to turn the tide in the country’s civil war.
Moscow’s military engagement has paid off.
The war is still not over, but the focus is increasingly on a
future political settlement.
To accomplish this, Moscow has teamed up
with the Turks and the Iranians. Russian-led peace talks by
the three countries were launched in Astana, Kazakhstan, last
January.
On Nov. 22, the leaders of the three
countries again met, in Sochi, Russia, to discuss Syria’s
future.
The summit emphasized the necessity of
preserving Syria’s unity and territorial integrity, without
raising any preconditions for the start of a transitional
period.
On Dec. 6 Putin announced that the military
operation in the area was now finished, and that the focus
would switch to a political process.
He added that it was important to establish
a Congress of Syrian Peoples, a proposed peace conference that
Russia has offered to host, which would lead to the
preparation of a new constitution and then presidential and
parliamentary elections.
In a visit to Moscow’s Hmeymim air base in
Syria five days later, Putin met with Assad and ordered “a
significant part” of Moscow’s military contingent there to
start withdrawing.
Moscow intends to
retain its permanent air and naval presence in the country.
Though the Kremlin has recently improved relations with
Egypt, it still regards Syria as its main geopolitical and
military foothold in the Middle East.
The air base and
the Tartus naval facility, which is being upgraded to a
regular naval base, will stay in place.
The Syrian armed
forces will continue to rely on Russian weapons and
equipment, and Russian military specialists will continue to
train them.
At
the same time, Moscow has no illusions about Assad’s
personal loyalty or his ambitions to keep his power, despite
Russian efforts for a political settlement and talks with
the opposition.
But
the reality is, while Russia is a principal actor, it cannot
resolve the situation all alone, and Iran also will retain
its influence.
Russia’s main contribution has been air
strikes, but Iran-backed Shi’ite militias did much of the
fighting on the ground.
Moscow
is aware of Iran’s desire for a “Shi’ite corridor”
stretching from Iran through Iraq and Syria, all the way to
Lebanon. Russia still must determine what level of Iranian
presence on the ground is acceptable.
Also, what Russia sees as legitimate
opposition forces, to be invited to attend the Congress of
Syrian Peoples, may not necessarily match Iran’s viewpoint.
In fact, during the six years of the Syrian
conflict, Russia has tried to establish ties with various
Syrian factions, including Kurdish groups, some of which Iran
deems suspect.
So Moscow’s attempt to centralize the
political process around its own role could potentially
alienate Iran down the road, thereby challenging their
so-far-successful partnership in Syria.
As for the United States, Washington seems
prepared to accept Assad’s continued rule, reversing repeated
U.S. statements that Assad must step down as part of a peace
process.
The Syrian regime now controls the majority
of the country’s territory, including cities such as Damascus,
Hama, Homs, Latakia, and Aleppo, that U.S. analysts refer to
as “useful Syria.”
Its forces, along with Hezbollah fighters
and an Iranian Revolutionary Guard contingent, have also
conquered considerable swathes of the Syrian Golan.
Of course the imminent end of the conflict
doesn’t mean Syrians will unite around Assad’s Shi’ite Alawite
regime.
More than six years of war has resulted in
the killing and displacement of at least one-third of Syria’s
Sunni Arabs, once an absolute majority in the country. They
may resume the battle at some future date.
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