Tinderbox of Global Conflicts

By Henry Srebrnik, [St John, NB] Telegraph-Journal

Watching the BBC World News a few days ago, I happened to note one of those scrolls that move by at the bottom of the screen. It read “Experts: Are We Headed for a Third World War?” 

I'm afraid these people are not just hysterics. The second world war began almost 80 years ago, and now the entire post-1945 world order has broken down.

In turn, there are smoldering conflicts in several “hot spots.” That war could result in one or more of them is far from impossible.

It is clear the Americans are spoiling for a fight with Russia. Everything points in that direction -- the strident, ceaseless drumbeat of attacks blaming Moscow for everything from “interfering” in elections everywhere and being a “malign influence” around the world, down to poisoning an ex-Russian spy living in England (no proof required).

The U.S. wasn’t this aggressive towards the old Soviet Union during the Cold War. Maybe they didn’t expect Russia to revive after 1991 and are angry, having expected, as the world’s now- hegemonic power, to have a free hand around the globe.

In the Middle East, the Syrian Civil War keeps drawing more and more countries into its whirlpool. 

Israel, Lebanon, Iran, Russia, Turkey and the U.S. all are now involved to some degree or another.

Sooner or later, even if inadvertently, some of these countries will come to blows, either on the battlefield or in the air. 

Will American face off against Russians? What about Israelis against Iranians and their Lebanese Hezbollah proxies? And if Turkey continues its incursions into the Kurdish north, will they confront Americans supporting Kurds?

While Palestinians in Gaza try to enter Israel en masse to highlight their desire for a right of return to Palestine, Hezbollah’s tens of thousands of missiles in Lebanon are pointed at the Jewish state.

If they really do attack and turn much of Tel Aviv into ashes, Israel will undoubtedly prompt massive retaliation with great carnage. This is would result in an all-out conflagration in the region.

In fact, could the truly unthinkable even happen? I refer to Israel’s so-called “Samson Option,” the name given to the country’s “last resort” decision to use nuclear weapons if much of the state were destroyed.

The name is a reference to the Old Testament Israelite judge Samson, who destroyed a Philistine temple, killing himself but also thousands of Philistines.

Meanwhile, we should not discount the possibility of civil srife within the United States. If they win the 2018 Congressional midterm elections, the Democrats in the House of Representatives will impeach Donald Trump. A Democrat-controlled Senate could then remove him from office. 

Having lost power, the divided Republican Party may begin to implode. On the other hand, flush with power, the Democrats, using their catchwords “diversity” and “inclusion,” will in fact do the opposite, further marginalizing the white Christian heartland that supported Donald Trump.

In turn, these people could conceivably begin a low-level insurrection along the lines we’ve seen in other deeply divided societies, like eastern Ukraine.At that point, all bets would be off on election results being recognized as legitimate.Over time, the country is becoming more tribal -- politically and socially -- not less.

In fact, the 2020 presidential election might produce actual violence in the United States.Clearly we are living in not just interesting, but very interesting, times.