Professor Henry Srebrnik

Professor Henry Srebrnik

Tuesday, November 13, 2018

Frau Merkel’s Troubles Mount

By Henry Srebrnik, [Saint, John, NB] Telegraph-Journal

Angela Merkel is becoming the Cheshire Cat of German politics, as her power slowly fades. In fact, she’s a lame duck, having announced she’ll be stepping down as chancellor within two years.

Two state elections in Bavaria and Hesse saw her centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Christian Social Union (CSU) Bavarian affiliate, continuing to lose votes, with much of it going to the Alternative for Germany (AfD).

The same malaise affects her federal coalition partner, the Social Democratic Party (SPD), with the Greens eating into their support.

Now in her fourth term in office, Merkel has served as chancellor for 13 years, and voters are saying it is time for her coalition government to go.

Both the CDU and the SPD in last year’s national election dropped to their worst postwar results.

In the Bavarian state election held Oct. 14, the CSU, which used to have a stranglehold on power, lost the absolute majority they had enjoyed for all but one term since 1962.

Their share of the vote plummeted by 10.5 per cent to 37.2 percent, even though they had publicly criticized Merkel’s migration policy and twice nearly brought down the federal coalition.

It was a deliberate CSU strategy to prove to Bavarian voters that the party could be just as tough on borders and security as its rivals in the AfD. It didn’t work.

Meanwhile, the Social Democrats collapsed into the single digits, their vote halved to 9.7 per cent.

The fringe parties are no more. While the combined share of the vote won by the SPD and CSU was down more than 20 per cent since the last Bavarian election in 2013, the Greens doubled their vote to 17.5 per cent while the AfD entered the state legislature for the first time after gaining 10.2 per cent.

The CSU will now have to cooperate with other parties to steer legislation.

On Oct. 28, voters went to the polls in Hesse, delivering another blow to the two establishment parties.

Merkel’s CDU, which has governed Hesse for two decades, won 27 per cent of the vote, good enough for first place, but in its worst performance since 1966, down 11 per cent since 2013.

The Social Democrats fell from 30.7 per cent to 19.8 per cent -- a 72-year low.

The Greens doubled their vote to 19.8 per cent, slightly ahead of the SPD, while the AfD claimed 13.1 per cent. The AfD now has seats in all 16 state legislatures.

The CDU will almost certainly remain in charge in Hesse, with coalition partners.

Niche and more extreme parties are gaining as the electorate splinters into smaller fragments. Merkel, who is also stepping down as CDU head, will be in even less control after these two state elections. 

This past week, in fact, she has faced calls to resign as chancellor immediately.

As the face of German and European stability for years, her downfall signals the end of an era.

No comments: