"Trump of the Tropics" Wins Election

By Henry Srebrnik, [Charlottetown, PEI] Guardian

For most of his 27-year career in national politics, Jair Bolsonaro has been a fringe figure on the far right of Brazilian politics. No more.

On Oct. 28, the 63-year-old former army captain defeated leftist Fernando Haddad in the runoff election for the presidency of Brazil, Latin’s America’s biggest country, receiving 55.13 per cent of the vote, against Haddad’s 44.87.

The country was geographically polarized, with the poorer northeast supporting Haddad, the rest of the country Bolsonaro.

Though he demonized opponents and polarized the nation with his history of denigrating women, gays and minorities, he swept to power in a nation angered by an out-of-control murder rate, massive financial corruption by its political elites, and a troubled economy.

Bolsonaro has been an outspoken defender of Brazil’s former military dictatorship, lamenting that it did not kill enough dissidents.

He launched his campaign with no significant political allies, a small party machine and a limited budget. He instead used social media, speaking directly to voters through tweets and Facebook.

To reduce crime in a country where the murder rate last year was 30.8 per 100,000 people, six times that of the United States, he vowed to give police expanded authority to kill suspects and advocated that gun laws be relaxed.

To jump-start the economy, which currently sees almost 13 million people unemployed, he has suggested that indigenous lands and the vast Amazon region should be opened up for development.

“It was obvious in this election that someone who could build a credible narrative of being different was going to do well. Bolsonaro understood that,” remarked Oliver Stuenkel, professor of international relations at the Getulio Vargas Foundation in Sao Paulo. “He was politically incorrect, a bit weird. But that’s one way he has been able to set himself apart from the rest.”

A former army captain, Bolsonaro left the military in 1988 to begin his political career. As a congressman, he engaged in violent rhetoric, calling in 1999 for the assassination of the elected president at the time, Fernando Henrique Cardoso.

In the campaign, corruption and the ruling Workers’ Party, which had won the last four presidential elections, were his primary targets. Since democracy was restored here in 1985, two presidents have been impeached, one has gone to jail, and Brazil’s current leader has been indicted on a charge of corruption.

One-third of the lower house is under investigation for corruption, largely tied to a sprawling kickback scheme known as “operation Car Wash,” involving some of the country’s largest companies.

Bolsonaro won by tapping into a deep well of resentment at the status quo in Brazil.  The scandal at the state-owned oil company implicated not only the center-left Workers’ Party, but also the center-right Democratic Movement party. That meant there was an opening for someone to argue that it was time to defeat the entire political establishment.

“He was trying to look like Trump,” said Marcos Nobre, a Sao Paulo-based political strategist. “His message to the electorate was, ‘If the U.S. elected a Trump, so can Brazil.’ ”

Bolsonaro has suggested building “a very high wall” along Brazil’s border with Paraguay to block gun runners and smugglers.

An iron fist, though, is exactly what some Brazilians seemed to want. About 78 per cent of Brazilians trust the armed forces, compared with 31 per cent who feel the same way about Congress.

It was “the widespread anti-political sentiment, the death of the centre, and a global environment that is more tolerant of these kinds of challenges to the status quo,” that allowed him “to take center stage,” stated Flavia Biroli, a political scientist at the University of Brasilia.

The election underscores what can happen in a nation when civilian politicians seem corrupt beyond hope and the murder rate rivals casualties in a war. It’s a cautionary tale.

Bolsonaro assumes office on January 1.