War by Other Means in Sri Lanka

By Henry Srebrnik, [Saint John, NB] Telegraph-Journal

You would think that after a vicious ethnically-based war between Sinhalese and Tamils that over three decades killed over 100,000 civilians and 50,000 fighters from both sides of the conflict, things would have calmed down in Sri Lanka. 

But that’s not the case. On Oct. 27, the president, Maithripala Sirisena, fired Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, calling him inept and corrupt. This was the culmination of months of tension between the two men and has led to violence.

The split between Wickremesinghe and Sirisena marked the end of the uneasy partnership between Wickremesinghe’s United National Front for Good Governance, led by his United National Party, and Sirisena’s United People's Freedom Alliance, led by his own Sri Lanka Freedom Party. They had been jointly governing the country since 2015.

The tensions between the two men peaked on Oct. 16 over the possible handover of a port development project to India, after it had been started with Chinese aid. Wickremesinghe favored the move but Sirisena opposed it.

The president then appointed a new prime minister, Mahinda Rajapaksa, the very former president whom he beat in the 2015 presidential election. Rajapaksa had signed the initial deal with China during his presidency. India and China have been engaged in a struggle for influence in the island nation.

Sirisena also dissolved parliament and decided to hold fresh elections, a move that experts called unconstitutional. Under the constitution, Sri Lanka’s president does not have the ability to replace the prime minister at will.

The country’s Supreme Court agreed, calling the move illegal, allowing the legislature to reconvene; they voted to remove Rajapaska on Nov. 16.

Calling it a foiled constitutional coup, Karunarathna Paranawithana, a supporter of Wickremesinghe, declared that “the only way Rajapaksa can hold on to power now is through the use of thuggery or the military.”

That wouldn’t be unthinkable, though. Rajapaksa was an authoritarian president, criticized for stifling dissent and accused of war crimes at the end of Sri Lanka’s civil war, which he brought to a close in a ruthless offensive against the Tamil Tigers in 2009.

He has not accepted the no-confidence motion against him. Meanwhile, he been working to bring lawmakers to his side. 

Five legislators from Wickremesinghe’s coalition have already defected to Rajapaksa -- and been granted cabinet posts. There have been other accusations of attempted bribery.

Wickremesinghe remains steadfast in his claim to be the rightful prime minister. He remains in the prime minister’s residence. Meanwhile, Rajapaska’s followers demand new elections.The president and the two rival prime ministers met on Sunday but did not appear to shift from their previous positions.

The country has never had a leader assume power through extra-constitutional means. This may now change. After all, as Prussian general Carl von Clausewitz famously remarked, “war is the continuation of politics by other means.”  The opposite is just as true.