Is Canada in Danger from Trump?

 

By Henry Srebrnik, Charlottetown Guardian

In Alberta, people are lining up to sign a petition calling for a referendum on independence. In Quebec, the federalist parties in the province are leaderless while the sovereigntist Parti Québécois leads in the polls in advance of an election. And apparently China is our new best friend while U.S. president Donald Trump muses about a new Monroe Doctrine for the Hemisphere.

So – should we worry? Prime Minister Mark Carney thinks so. Chinese President Xi Jinping welcomed Carney after years of diplomatic tensions between Ottawa and Beijing, as both countries move to rebuild ties amid U.S. tariff pressures.

The prime minister told President Xi that we are forging a new strategic partnership which will yield “historic” gains for both nations. Canada is seeking a partnership with China to prepare for the “new world order.”

“There is intrinsic value in the event of the visit happening,” L. Philippe Rheault, a former Canadian diplomat who leads the China Institute at the University of Alberta, told the New York Times Jan. 14. “These days it’s hard to talk about Canada-China relations without a reference to what’s happening in Washington,” he added. “Whatever you think about Trump, he’s serving as a historical accelerant and a catalyst for countries to reassert their economic and security arrangements.”

But isn’t this relationship purely transactional. Is Carney taunting Trump and his “Donroe Doctrine,” with this trip to China? Is Canada going to be the “hole” in the western hemisphere’s fence? Does anyone really think China can supplant the U.S. as an ally, when we border it?

English Canada’s culture aligns with America’s. We watch American movies, television, and sports, have a shared history and family ties, and so forth. That’s to some extent also true in Quebec. China doesn’t, and that won’t be wished away. Trump will not always be in the White House. But the United States will always be our neighbour.

Most Canadians, no doubt, hate Trump. This is not news. But some of our writers and intellectuals have been turning him into an imperialist warmonger wishing to gobble up Canada.

Steven Chase, senior parliamentary reporter for the Toronto Globe and Mail, in a Jan. 6 article entitled “Canada faces existential challenge from Trump’s hemisphere strategy, quotes Bob Rae, this country’s former ambassador to the United Nations, as contending that Trump’s military strike on Venezuela, his designs on Greenland, and his government’s declaration of ownership over the Western Hemisphere represent an existential challenge to Canada.

Rae said that Canadians would be mistaken in thinking they’re not “on the menu” too, meaning “the American government doesn’t take Canada’s sovereignty seriously.” Canada is facing a more difficult situation than anything it has confronted since the Second World War, he indicated. “I think the challenges we face are existential.”

Globe and Mail writer Tony Keller, in a Jan. 9 oped, “Wake up, Canada. The Trump Doctrine is aimed at us,” warned that Trump is dangerous. “Do not take our country’s existence for granted. We are in the sights. Believe it.” Another Globe article told us that “The question and the oil could be a calling card for the President’s stated objectives.”

Adam Gordon, a visiting fellow of the Cascade Institute at Royal Roads University, says there’s mounting evidence suggesting a real risk of the Trump administration using military coercion against Canada. He pointed to what he calls “a pattern of behaviour and statements” from the Trump administration, including the calls for Canada to become the 51st state.

Canada stands to face the biggest fallout of political turmoil in the United States in 2026, a new report by the Eurasia Group warned that same day. The risk management firm says the long-standing relationship between the two countries “is history” and ongoing trade uncertainty will have an impact on the Canadian economy.

Trump’s systematic effort to dismantle checks on his power and weaponize the machinery of government against his political enemies will inevitably reshape not only Canada-U.S. relations, but the Canadian economy and Canadians’ engagement with the rest of the world,” the report states.

“The challenge for Ottawa -- and Canadian firms more broadly -- will be to play defence and offence at the same time: managing an unpredictable and unreliable U.S. while carving out new roles in an increasingly unstable G-Zero world.”

The report warns Canada’s efforts to diversify trade and international relationships will face “powerful headwinds” this year, and that it will need to manage its relations with the U.S. while building new ones with other countries.

Given all this, it’s no wonder that a recent poll suggested that 31 per cent of Canadian respondents felt that the United States might attempt “direct action” to take control of Canada. The Leger poll surveyed 1,540 Canadians between Jan. 9 and Jan. 11.

Another 55 per cent said such action was likely in Greenland, 51 per cent said the U.S. will probably intervene in Cuba, 47 per cent said it would go after Colombia, 47 per cent cited Panama and 36 per cent predicted American intervention in Iran.

And it’s also no surprise that 31 per cent of Canadians think someone with dual citizenship is less loyal to Canada, according to an opinion poll conducted last month by Leger for the Association for Canadian Studies, published Jan. 16 in the National Post.

So, is this hysteria or a genuine threat to this country? Let’s hope it’s the former.