Will the Fifth Republic Survive PAID?

 By Henry Srebrnik, Fredericton Daily Gleaner

Will the French Fifth Republic, now almost 70 years old, survive PAID (political assistance in dying)? The political “doctors” administering the coup de grâce might be Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, from opposite political ends of the spectrum.

Founded in 1958, upon the death of the short-lived Fourth Republic, the Fifth Republic was designed by war hero Charles de Gaulle to create a strong semi-presidential system. The Fourth Republic formed in 1946 was a multi-party parliamentary system with politically unstable coalitions that frequently collapsed. The result: 16 individuals formed a total of more than 20 administrations, in just 12 years. The executive was a revolving door.

De Gaulle had chaired the postwar provisional government from 1944 to 1946 to restore democracy in France but hated the Fourth Republic and left office. He came out of retirement in 1958 during the political crisis over the Algerian War and commissioned a new constitution.

It placed power in a directly elected president winning a nationwide majority vote, in a two-person runoff, if necessary. It established a seven-year term, reduced to five years following a 2000 constitutional referendum to align the presidency with parliament. A president is limited to a maximum of two consecutive terms. De Gaulle served as its first president, the first of eight, a position he held until his resignation in 1969.

The division of powers remained in force. National Assembly elections were separate, with premiers forming cabinets designed to do the president’s bidding. Other powerful men who became head of state included Georges Pompidou, Valéry Giscard d’Estaing, François Mitterrand, and Jacques Chirac.

But the last three have been less stellar, with the current incumbent, Emmanuel Macron, an unpopular “lame duck.” As well, there have been six prime ministers over the last five years. Macron was elected president in 2017 with 66 per cent of the second-round vote. He defeated Marine Le Pen of the National Front, now the National Rally (Rassemblement National, or RN), who won 34 per cent. He beat her again in a second round in 2022, with 59 per cent to her 41, becoming the first French presidential candidate to win re-election since Chirac in 2002. Le Pen first ran in 2012, placing third with 18 per cent in the first round of voting.

As for Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the head of France Unbowed (La France Insoumise, or LFI), he has also run for the presidency three times. In 2012 and 2017, he was knocked out in the first round, winning 11 and 20 per cent respectively.  In 2022, Mélenchon also came in third place with 22 per cent of the vote in the first round, behind Macron at 28 per cent and Le Pen at 23.

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in France next spring. Will the fourth time be the charm for one of these two? It looks quite possible. An economically troubled, polarized and angry France may select one of these two so-called “far-right” and “far-left” candidates. The centre isn’t holding.

France’s underlying problem is a government caught between expensive social commitments, sluggish economic growth and mounting pressure to cut spending. It is nearing a debt crisis. The violent and massive student protests that began in September over crumbling schools are fueling more discontent, and experts warn that the country’s mounting financial troubles, President Macron’s weakened political centre, and radical movements are pushing the unrest far beyond its original educational grievances.

Between 250,000 and 500,000 people have taken to the streets. There have been rallies in roughly 110 places by Oct. 17, and large marches later took place that day in the country’s major cities, including Paris, Lyon, Nantes and Rennes. Nearly 8,000 people have been arrested, and about 900 police officers, as well as more than 350 students and staff members, have been injured. More than 100 high schools have been severely damaged, and several were burned down. In Marseille, firefighters responding to burning trash outside Saint-Exupéry high school were assaulted.

France’s prime minister, Sébastien Lecornu, suggested that student anger was being manipulated. Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin said outsiders had hijacked it; Interior Minister Laurent Nunez described troublemakers moving between schools to incite violence.

Le Pen seized on the violence to intensify her law-and-order message. She called the images “unbearable” and described the rioters as “a pack howling its hatred.” She has asked for a new anti-riot law, while RN president Jordan Bardella blamed the disturbances on “decades of laxity and mass immigration.”

Behind the chaos is a calculated strategy for Mélenchon. LFI lawmakers have appeared at school gates and called for blockades to spread. His allies include the Antifascist Young Guard (La Jeune Garde Antifasciste), accused of the murder of a far-right activist in Lyon last winter, and Hope Dignity Resistance (Espoir Dignité Résistance), a group that under the guise of fighting Islamophobia, engages in violent activism. It’s also hard to miss the prevalence of Algerian and Palestinian flags.

“We will establish the Sixth Republic!” Mélenchon shouted at a recent event. “A republic of popular power through citizen referendums!” No one retains respect for the outgoing president or for the rusted institutions of the Fifth Republic. What began with legitimate complaints is exploited by forces seeking confrontation with the state. The anger is real, but the violence is organized.