A Fractured National Assembly

  By Henry Srebrnik, [Charlottetown, PEI] Guardian

There are three big winners and two big losers in the French National Assembly elections that concluded June 19.

The winners? Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Marine Le Pen, and…Vladimir Putin.

The losers: Emmanuel Macron and Volodymyr Zelensky.

The two big issues before voters were the huge jump in inflation, and the continuing costs of the war in Ukraine.

True, President Macron has not taken as hard a line against Putin as have his American, British, and Canadian counterparts. But even that may have been too much for many who voted for parties to his political left and right.

Macron had said it was crucial to provide Putin with a way out of what he called a “fundamental error.” He had repeatedly spoken to Putin by phone in an effort to broker a ceasefire and negotiations. He also visited Kyiv on June 16 to meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky.

One shouldn’t joke about matters like war and murder, but I must say I couldn’t help pointing out to friends that Russia has unveiled a new weapons system: Call it an “inflation missile,” programmed to strike all gas stations and grocery stores in Europe and North America.

They are now working on an “anti-heating oil bomb,” which should be ready by this coming winter. It may “disable” all oil and gas-fueled furnaces in Europe.

The Western powers, using sanctions, assumed they had, so to speak, put Russia in a cage. But the world is now actually divided into two cages, and it appears Russia’s version includes Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, South Africa, Turkey, and perhaps others. So who is actually “imprisoned”?

In March 2014, Russia was suspended indefinitely from the Group of 8 (G8) major economic powers following the annexation of Crimea, leaving seven nations.

Russia is now apparently en route to create a “new G8” in response to its ruptured economic ties with the United States and western allies such as Canada.

“The economies of the United States, Japan, Germany, Britain, France, Italy, and Canada continue to collapse under the pressure of sanctions against Russia,” asserted Vyacheslav Volodin, the chair of the State Duma, the lower house of the Russian parliament, on June 11.

France is facing intense economic headwinds as inflation sets in. Who wants to hear about Ukraine when people are struggling to pay their rent or gas for their car? Meanwhile, Russia has shown a surprising amount of economic resiliency since sanctions kicked in.

Perhaps Macron has become the first victim of Russia’s “counterattack.” And that is, unfortunately for him, no joke. The annual rate of inflation stood at 5.2 per cent in May, the highest since September of 1985.

The price of energy skyrocketed, particularly gasoline, up 24.2 per cent.  Prices also increased for services, food and manufactured goods. The economy contracted by 0.2 per cent in the first quarter of this year. Dwindling purchasing power became the top political issue in the election.

Macron needed to secure at least 289 of the 577 seats to have a majority for pushing through legislation during his second five-year term. The results demonstrate that France continues to grapple with its political identity.

Macron’s Ensemble, a centrist coalition, won 245 seats, down 102. His biggest challenge came from an alliance of France’s left-wing forces known as NUPES. At 131 seats, a gain of 73, they now have a commanding presence in French politics.

The far-right Rassemblement National (NR) of Marine Le Pen also dramatically increased its tally from five years ago, winning 89 seats, way up from the eight seats it held, while a group of centrist right-wing parties came fourth with 61, less than half its previous total of 136.

The NR’s success was made possible by the near disappearance of the “Republican front,” the French tradition whereby mainstream parties join forces against far-right candidates in the second round of elections.

Macron on June 22 implored the opposition parties to make “compromises” for the “sake of national unity.” The president held two days of talks with opposition leaders at the Élysée Palace, but no party has taken up his offer. 

The president faces a potentially tumultuous five years of deadlock, with a National Assembly which cannot guarantee the passage of his reforms. Collaboration will entail lengthy negotiations over legislation, and unstable agreements.

 

Macron’s France is Disenchanted and Divided

 By Henry Srebrnik, [Moncton, NB] Times & Transcript

There are two big winners and one big loser in the French National Assembly elections that concluded June 19, as they confronted the huge jump in inflation, and the continuing cost of the war in Ukraine.

It was President Emmanuel Macron who suffered a major defeat, though he has not taken as hard a line against Vladimir Putin as have his American, British, and Canadian counterparts. Macron had said it was crucial to provide Putin with a way out of what he called a “fundamental error.” He repeatedly spoke to Putin by phone in an effort to broker a ceasefire and negotiations.

But even that may have been too much for many who voted for parties to his political left and right. Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Marine Le Pen, his main opponents, who both scored big gains, are far less enthusiastic about supporting NATO in its confrontation with Russia.

However, it was the economy that really did Macron in. France is facing intense economic headwinds as inflation sets in. Who wants to hear about Ukraine when people are struggling to pay their rent or gas for their car? Meanwhile, Russia has shown a surprising amount of economic resiliency since sanctions kicked in.

So perhaps Macron has inadvertently become the first victim of the war. The annual rate of inflation in France stood at 5.2 per cent in May, the highest since September of 1985. The price of energy skyrocketed, particularly gasoline, up 24.2 per cent.  

Prices also increased for services, food and manufactured goods, while the economy contracted by 0.2 per cent in the first quarter of this year. Dwindling purchasing power became the top political issue in the election.

Macron needed to secure at least 289 of the 577 seats to have a majority for pushing through legislation during his second five-year term. The results demonstrate that France continues to grapple with its political identity.

Macron’s Ensemble is a centrist coalition that includes La République en Marche, the party that Macron founded and that swept to victory in 2017. There was no repeat this time. They won 245 seats, down 102.

His biggest challenge came from a reinvigorated alliance of France’s left-wing forces. La Nouvelle Union Populaire Écologique et Sociale (NUPES) is a left-wing alliance brought together by Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s La France Insoumise, and includes the Socialist, Green and Communist parties. At 131 seats, a gain of 73, they now have a commanding presence in French politics.

“We have succeeded in our political objective” to overthrow the president “who so arrogantly twists the country’s arm,” Mélenchon said.

The far-right Rassemblement National (NR) of Marine Le Pen also dramatically increased its tally from five years ago, winning 89 seats, way up from the eight seats it held. A group of centrist right-wing parties, led by Les Républicains and L’Union des Démocrates et Indepéndants, came fourth with 61, less than half its previous total of 136. Clearly, many of their votes moved into the NR column.

The NR will now be able to obtain key National Assembly posts, propose legislation and challenge government bills. The number represents a "tsunami," said interim president Jordan Bardella. Le Pen called it a “seismic event.”

So what’s an incumbent president, now without a working majority in the National Assembly, to do? France has a semi-presidential system with a separation of powers between the executive and legislative branches, so Macron has to pick a prime minister to push his agenda through parliament and will need the help of other parties.

Macron faces a potentially tumultuous five years of deadlock, with a National Assembly which cannot guarantee the passage of his reforms. Collaboration will entail negotiations over legislation, and unstable agreements.

His big-ticket proposals were reforming benefits, cutting taxes and raising the retirement age from 62 to 65. His pension age reform will be hard to get through, although he will attract support from the Republicans. as the party has a similar stance on raising the retirement age, as well as carbon neutrality and the country's use of nuclear energy. 

None of this may materialize. Macron now presides over a disenchanted and divided country where support for populist parties on the right and left has surged.

 

U.S. Democrats Progressively Souring on Israel

  By Henry Srebrnik, [Halifax, NS] Chronicle Herald

The Democratic Party was once Israel’s central pillar of political support in the United States. But things have changed.

The party’s left wing, which had once seen Israel as the victim of Arab aggression, became increasingly hostile when it decided that it was Israel that was the oppressive power, denying Palestinians precisely what Zionism had given Jews: a state of their own.

The diplomatic rupture began with Jimmy Carter, who, as an ex-president, became the first major American political figure to accuse Israel of being an apartheid state.

Barack Obama’s presidency saw a further deterioration in the relationship. As part of his outreach to the Muslim world, he called the situation for the Palestinian people “intolerable.” In the waning days of his presidency, his administration even refused to veto an anti-Israel resolution at the UN Security Council.

In a stunning diplomatic rebuke of Israel, in December 2016 Washington abstained on a resolution demanding an end to Israeli settlements on Palestinian territory, allowing it to pass easily.

How is Joe Biden faring in relation to Israel? The president has affirmed the Abraham Accords, kept the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem, and has done nothing to reverse Donald Trump’s recognition of the Golan Heights as sovereign Israeli territory. But he continues to push for a new nuclear deal with Iran, which Israel views as exceptionally dangerous to Israel’s security.

Meanwhile, the Democratic Party itself has seen the rise of prominent anti-Israel progressives in Congress such as Representatives Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib.

In May 2021, as Israel became embroiled in conflict with Hamas, some 25 Democrats signed a letter calling Israel’s military response a violation of international and American law, and condemned Israel’s use of force.

Months later, House of Representative progressives briefly blocked an effort to fund the Iron Dome missile-defense system, the chief purpose of which is to intercept Hamas rockets before they can kill Israeli civilians.

On May 16 of this year, Ocasio-Cortez, Omar and Tlaib introduced a resolution in the House of Representatives referring to Palestinian Arabs as the “indigenous inhabitants” of Israel and endorsing the Palestinian “right of return,” one of the most sensitive issues in Israeli-Palestinian relations.

The influence of the left in the Democratic Party has been bolstered by the grip of “intersectionality” as it now applies to Israel: The idea that if one is against the oppression of African Americans in the U.S., one must also be anti-Israel, based on the view that Israelis are white Jews oppressing Palestinians, considered people of colour. (Actually, a majority of Israelis originate from outside Europe.) The assumption is that America’s racial categories can be grafted on to the Israeli–Palestinian conflict.

The so-called “legacy” media also skews to the Democratic Party left. On June 9, 2021, scores of journalists signed a public statement decrying the “decades-long journalistic malpractice” of the news industry’s alleged bias in favor of Israel.

The letter gained more than 500 signatories, with representatives from nearly every major American news outlet, including the Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times, the New York Times, ABC News, NBC News, and National Public Radio.

During the 2021 Gaza war, it was clear that this “moral-clarity” agenda had already filtered into coverage of Israel. Framing of the Gaza escalation as a racial conflict pitting “white settlers” against a “native” population started cropping up even in mainstream media.

Such equivalencies between Israeli and American racism, and their elevation to something newsworthy, is to be expected now. Lost is the ability to discuss complex events in other parts of the world as if they existed outside a narrow partisan American domestic framework.

Yet maintaining American support from both major American political parties and newspapers remains a priority for any Israeli government.

If war breaks out with Hamas in Gaza or with Lebanon-based Hezbollah, the calls to sanction Israel might dramatically increase and will be heard not just on MSNBC but also on the floor of the House of Representatives in the U.S. Capitol.

Does anyone really believe that if Israel does to Beirut what Russia did to Mariupol in Ukraine, the world will stand by and applaud? Or might, rather, American corporations pull out of the country? Tough times ahead.