War Pushes Finland, Sweden to NATO

 By Henry Srebrnik, [Moncton, NB] Times & Transcript

Finland and Sweden long held that the Nordic social model, with its progressive internationalism, was incompatible with NATO membership. The invasion of Ukraine has changed that.

Since 1814, Sweden has managed to avoid wars and declared itself neutral. Joining NATO will discard a centuries-old tradition that has come to define the country’s national identity.

Finland’s history has not been quite so peaceful. The Russian Revolution of 1917, which brought down the tsarist empire, led to Finnish independence. After two wars against the Soviet Union (1939-44), the second as an ally of Nazi Germany, it too became neutral, not wishing to antagonize its powerful Soviet neighbour.

It signed a Treaty of Friendship with the Soviets in 1948. In return, Soviet troops stayed on their side of the 1,340-kilometre border with Finland, and Finns kept their democratic form of government.

But that was then, this is now. In 1991 the Soviet Union ceased to exist and the former Communist states of eastern Europe regained their sovereignty, joining the European Union and NATO. The Ukraine war has been the final step. Members of the EU since 1995, the conflict has propelled Finland and Sweden to now apply for NATO membership. 

Two other neutral European nations, Austria and Switzerland, have remained unwavering in their status.

“We’re now facing a fundamentally changed security environment in Europe,” Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson has said. In a joint statement, President Sauli Niinisto and Prime Minister Sanna Marin of Finland remarked that “NATO membership would strengthen Finland’s security.”

The two nations meet NATO’s membership criteria, as functioning democracies with modern armed forces that are in lock-step with the alliance.

A year ago, this would all have been unthinkable. Public opinion in both countries was solidly against entering NATO. But in this new environment, support for NATO membership is high: about 60 per cent in Sweden and 75 per cent in Finland.

Some of the most ardent supporters of NATO membership can be found among Sweden and Finland’s business leaders. In April, Finnish President Niinisto hosted a NATO meeting in Helsinki. Among those in attendance were Swedish Minister of Finance Mikael Damberg and top-ranking military officials.

Though Sweden has held referenda on every major decision in recent history, including EU membership and the adoption of the euro, it will not consult its citizens on NATO. The most prominent politician to call for a vote is Left Party leader Nooshi Dadgostar, but her requests have been rejected.

In Finland, parliament voted overwhelmingly in favour of membership, with 188 for and only eight against. Of those eight, one was from the right-populist Finns Party, another was a former member of the same group, and the remaining six were from the Left Alliance.

NATO requires unanimous approval from all member states for a new country to join. But Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has called Finland and Sweden “incubators” of Kurdish “terror.”

He has vowed to block their accession to NATO until they meet his demands to extradite Kurdish members of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and the Gulenist movement, blaming the latter for a bloody coup attempt in 2016.

“Scandinavian countries are like some kind of guest house for terrorist organizations,” Erdogan said. “They even take part in their parliaments. At this point, it is not possible for us to look at it positively.” He has also demanded that Sweden lift an arms embargo that it imposed in response to Turkey’s incursions in Syria in 2019.

Article 13 of the NATO charter provides a mechanism for members to withdraw. Perhaps it is time, some suggested in referring to Turkey, to amend Article 13 to establish a procedure for the expulsion of a member nation.

Meanwhile, Croatia’s president, Zoran Milanovic, has erected another, smaller obstacle, promising to block Sweden and Finland’s membership unless Bosnia and Herzegovina’s election law is changed so that Bosnian Croats are better represented. “That is not an act against Finland and Sweden, but it is for Croatia,” he contended.

Assuming these roadblocks will be temporary, NATO’s border with Russia will double and it will tighten its strategic grip on the Baltic Sea, limiting Russia’s access to the city of St. Petersburg and to its Kaliningrad exclave.