Macron’s France is Disenchanted and Divided

 By Henry Srebrnik, [Moncton, NB] Times & Transcript

There are two big winners and one big loser in the French National Assembly elections that concluded June 19, as they confronted the huge jump in inflation, and the continuing cost of the war in Ukraine.

It was President Emmanuel Macron who suffered a major defeat, though he has not taken as hard a line against Vladimir Putin as have his American, British, and Canadian counterparts. Macron had said it was crucial to provide Putin with a way out of what he called a “fundamental error.” He repeatedly spoke to Putin by phone in an effort to broker a ceasefire and negotiations.

But even that may have been too much for many who voted for parties to his political left and right. Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Marine Le Pen, his main opponents, who both scored big gains, are far less enthusiastic about supporting NATO in its confrontation with Russia.

However, it was the economy that really did Macron in. France is facing intense economic headwinds as inflation sets in. Who wants to hear about Ukraine when people are struggling to pay their rent or gas for their car? Meanwhile, Russia has shown a surprising amount of economic resiliency since sanctions kicked in.

So perhaps Macron has inadvertently become the first victim of the war. The annual rate of inflation in France stood at 5.2 per cent in May, the highest since September of 1985. The price of energy skyrocketed, particularly gasoline, up 24.2 per cent.  

Prices also increased for services, food and manufactured goods, while the economy contracted by 0.2 per cent in the first quarter of this year. Dwindling purchasing power became the top political issue in the election.

Macron needed to secure at least 289 of the 577 seats to have a majority for pushing through legislation during his second five-year term. The results demonstrate that France continues to grapple with its political identity.

Macron’s Ensemble is a centrist coalition that includes La République en Marche, the party that Macron founded and that swept to victory in 2017. There was no repeat this time. They won 245 seats, down 102.

His biggest challenge came from a reinvigorated alliance of France’s left-wing forces. La Nouvelle Union Populaire Écologique et Sociale (NUPES) is a left-wing alliance brought together by Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s La France Insoumise, and includes the Socialist, Green and Communist parties. At 131 seats, a gain of 73, they now have a commanding presence in French politics.

“We have succeeded in our political objective” to overthrow the president “who so arrogantly twists the country’s arm,” Mélenchon said.

The far-right Rassemblement National (NR) of Marine Le Pen also dramatically increased its tally from five years ago, winning 89 seats, way up from the eight seats it held. A group of centrist right-wing parties, led by Les Républicains and L’Union des Démocrates et Indepéndants, came fourth with 61, less than half its previous total of 136. Clearly, many of their votes moved into the NR column.

The NR will now be able to obtain key National Assembly posts, propose legislation and challenge government bills. The number represents a "tsunami," said interim president Jordan Bardella. Le Pen called it a “seismic event.”

So what’s an incumbent president, now without a working majority in the National Assembly, to do? France has a semi-presidential system with a separation of powers between the executive and legislative branches, so Macron has to pick a prime minister to push his agenda through parliament and will need the help of other parties.

Macron faces a potentially tumultuous five years of deadlock, with a National Assembly which cannot guarantee the passage of his reforms. Collaboration will entail negotiations over legislation, and unstable agreements.

His big-ticket proposals were reforming benefits, cutting taxes and raising the retirement age from 62 to 65. His pension age reform will be hard to get through, although he will attract support from the Republicans. as the party has a similar stance on raising the retirement age, as well as carbon neutrality and the country's use of nuclear energy. 

None of this may materialize. Macron now presides over a disenchanted and divided country where support for populist parties on the right and left has surged.