A Fractured National Assembly

  By Henry Srebrnik, [Charlottetown, PEI] Guardian

There are three big winners and two big losers in the French National Assembly elections that concluded June 19.

The winners? Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Marine Le Pen, and…Vladimir Putin.

The losers: Emmanuel Macron and Volodymyr Zelensky.

The two big issues before voters were the huge jump in inflation, and the continuing costs of the war in Ukraine.

True, President Macron has not taken as hard a line against Putin as have his American, British, and Canadian counterparts. But even that may have been too much for many who voted for parties to his political left and right.

Macron had said it was crucial to provide Putin with a way out of what he called a “fundamental error.” He had repeatedly spoken to Putin by phone in an effort to broker a ceasefire and negotiations. He also visited Kyiv on June 16 to meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky.

One shouldn’t joke about matters like war and murder, but I must say I couldn’t help pointing out to friends that Russia has unveiled a new weapons system: Call it an “inflation missile,” programmed to strike all gas stations and grocery stores in Europe and North America.

They are now working on an “anti-heating oil bomb,” which should be ready by this coming winter. It may “disable” all oil and gas-fueled furnaces in Europe.

The Western powers, using sanctions, assumed they had, so to speak, put Russia in a cage. But the world is now actually divided into two cages, and it appears Russia’s version includes Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, South Africa, Turkey, and perhaps others. So who is actually “imprisoned”?

In March 2014, Russia was suspended indefinitely from the Group of 8 (G8) major economic powers following the annexation of Crimea, leaving seven nations.

Russia is now apparently en route to create a “new G8” in response to its ruptured economic ties with the United States and western allies such as Canada.

“The economies of the United States, Japan, Germany, Britain, France, Italy, and Canada continue to collapse under the pressure of sanctions against Russia,” asserted Vyacheslav Volodin, the chair of the State Duma, the lower house of the Russian parliament, on June 11.

France is facing intense economic headwinds as inflation sets in. Who wants to hear about Ukraine when people are struggling to pay their rent or gas for their car? Meanwhile, Russia has shown a surprising amount of economic resiliency since sanctions kicked in.

Perhaps Macron has become the first victim of Russia’s “counterattack.” And that is, unfortunately for him, no joke. The annual rate of inflation stood at 5.2 per cent in May, the highest since September of 1985.

The price of energy skyrocketed, particularly gasoline, up 24.2 per cent.  Prices also increased for services, food and manufactured goods. The economy contracted by 0.2 per cent in the first quarter of this year. Dwindling purchasing power became the top political issue in the election.

Macron needed to secure at least 289 of the 577 seats to have a majority for pushing through legislation during his second five-year term. The results demonstrate that France continues to grapple with its political identity.

Macron’s Ensemble, a centrist coalition, won 245 seats, down 102. His biggest challenge came from an alliance of France’s left-wing forces known as NUPES. At 131 seats, a gain of 73, they now have a commanding presence in French politics.

The far-right Rassemblement National (NR) of Marine Le Pen also dramatically increased its tally from five years ago, winning 89 seats, way up from the eight seats it held, while a group of centrist right-wing parties came fourth with 61, less than half its previous total of 136.

The NR’s success was made possible by the near disappearance of the “Republican front,” the French tradition whereby mainstream parties join forces against far-right candidates in the second round of elections.

Macron on June 22 implored the opposition parties to make “compromises” for the “sake of national unity.” The president held two days of talks with opposition leaders at the Élysée Palace, but no party has taken up his offer. 

The president faces a potentially tumultuous five years of deadlock, with a National Assembly which cannot guarantee the passage of his reforms. Collaboration will entail lengthy negotiations over legislation, and unstable agreements.