Boris Johnson is Running Out of Road

 By Henry Srebrnik, [Moncton, NB] Times & Transcript

At least Volodymyr Zelensky likes him – unlike many of his fellow Conservative members of parliament!

“I'm glad we haven't lost an important ally, this is great news,” the Ukrainian president said about British Prime Minister Boris Johnson in an interview at a virtual conference hosted by the Financial Times on June 7.

This followed a major revolt in Johnson’s own caucus that saw 148 of his own Tory MPs vote to remove him a day earlier. He retained the support of 211 members.

Though he scored a sweeping election victory in 2019, Johnson has faced a backlash from MPs and the public after he was fined by police for breaking his own lockdown laws at a 2020 party at 10 Downing Street, where the prime minister lives and works.

The Gray Report, a finding by a senior civil servant, criticized failures of leadership, where officials and staff were issued with a total of 123 fines for breaking COVID rules on indoor gatherings during the pandemic.

Johnson contended it was the wrong time for “unforced domestic political drama” while Ukraine was fighting Russia. He won the backing of 59 per cent of his MPs, describing the result as “extremely good, positive, conclusive” and insisting his leadership was now secure.

Not so fast. This is a wound that may result in a political death sooner rather than later. A sign? He was met with jeers and boos at events to celebrate the Platinum Jubilee of Queen Elizabeth II.

Johnson’s own anti-corruption champion John Penrose resigned. “I think it’s over. It feels now like a question of when not if,” he told Sky News.

For many in Britain, the revelations of what went on in Downing Street, including fights and alcohol-induced vomiting, while many people were prevented from saying goodbye to loved ones at funerals, were difficult to stomach. One such gathering took place on eve of the April 2001 funeral for Prince Philip.

Perhaps only someone with as privileged a background and with such an obvious sense of entitlement as Johnson’s can try to shake this off.

Precedents are certainly not in Johnson’s favour. Backbench MPs in the Conservative Party have far more independence than their Canadian counterparts and have forced other leaders out in the past.

In a vote over her Brexit policy, Theresa May survived a confidence vote with a majority of 83 in December 2018. Despite winning, she resigned as prime minister six months later, leading to Johnson becoming leader.

 Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith lost a confidence vote in October 2003 and resigned, while John Major triggered a contest in 1995 by resigning as leader (though not as prime minister) amid disagreements inside the party over the country’s place in Europe. Though he beat challenger John Redwood, he went on to lose the 1997 election.

 Most famously, despite 11 mostly successful years in office, Margaret Thatcher resigned as prime minster in 1990 after failing to win an outright victory as party leader. She beat Michael Heseltine by 204 votes to 152 but was persuaded to stand down by her own cabinet.

Although the leadership rules give Johnson a year’s respite from another such vote, party rebels could change the rules to force another attempt. Two by-elections in Conservative-held constituencies are scheduled for June 23. Should either or both fall to opposition parties, Johnson could find himself under further pressure to resign.

Likely successors include Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, Britain’s chief diplomat in the Ukraine crisis, who is also the country’s lead negotiator with the European Union on lingering issues following Britain’s exit from the bloc.

Another contender would be Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak. Born to Indian parents who moved to the U.K. from today’s Kenya and Tanzania, he would be Britain’s first prime minister of colour.

Jeremy Hunt, a former health secretary and foreign secretary, who ran against Johnson in the 2019 leadership race, billed himself as the more serious candidate. He lost heavily and was dumped from the cabinet when Johnson took over.

Finally, there’s Defense Secretary Ben Wallace, a key government voice in Britain’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. They’re all waiting and ready to take over.