By Henry Srebrnik [Charlottetown, PEI] Guardian
The militant Shia militia Hezbollah, based
in Lebanon, now has more than 150,000 missiles and rockets
aimed at Israel. A war, which would cause incalculable
destruction in Lebanon, as well as massive damage to Israel,
seems almost inevitable.
Hezbollah is aided by Iran, which already
virtually controls Iraq and Syria. It operates weapons
production facilities in Lebanon, manufacturing guided
missiles and drones that can carry explosive charges.
The group’s
Iranian backers plan to create arsenals for precision missile
batteries that pose a strategic threat to Israel.
Hezbollah, which has played an important
role in preserving the Assad regime in Syria, now has
thousands of battle-hardened veterans.
Although Hezbollah’s intervention there did exact a heavy price in casualties, its position in Lebanon has not weakened, and the general elections in Lebanon in May 2018 will likely strengthen its political status.
Although Hezbollah’s intervention there did exact a heavy price in casualties, its position in Lebanon has not weakened, and the general elections in Lebanon in May 2018 will likely strengthen its political status.
Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan
Nasrallah has not been shy in boasting that his Shia movement
now calls the shots – literally -- in the fractured Lebanese
state, having pushed its once-prominent Christian, Druze, and
Sunni political rivals to the sidelines.
The sequence of events that led to this
existential threat to the Jewish state began 40 years ago, at
a time when Israel’s border with Lebanon, a small and weak
country, was relatively quiet.
On March 11, 1978, the worst single act of
terrorism on Israeli soil since independence resulted in the
deaths of 38 Israelis, including 13 children. Another 71
were wounded.
The
coastal road massacre, as it came to be known, began when
Palestinian terrorists, slipping ashore from the
Mediterranean, hijacked
two buses along
Israel’s main coastal highway from Haifa to Tel Aviv,
shooting along the way at everyone in sight, before it ended
in a firefight with Israeli police.
The
resultant furore led to Operation Litani. On March
15, Israel launched an attack against Palestine Liberation
Organization (PLO) bases in southern Lebanon. It killed
approximately 1,100 people, most of them Palestinian and
Lebanese civilians.
Israel
now became militarily embroiled in Lebanon. Though Israeli
forces withdrew, they turned over their positions inside
Lebanon to their ally, the South Lebanon Army (SLA), a largely
Christian militia.
Israel launched another, far greater,
invasion of Lebanon on June 6, 1982, after repeated attacks
and counter-attacks between its forces and the PLO.
Though
the PLO was expelled, Israel continued to operate a
“security zone” in the south until 2000. The depth
of this zone varied between five and twenty kilometres.
The number of Israeli soldiers deployed
ranged between 1,000 and 1,500. But fifteen years of
armed conflict, especially with the newly-formed Hezbollah,
weakened Israeli resolve and sapped the public’s support for
the occupation.
By
the time the last Israeli soldiers left southern Lebanon May
24, 2000, Israel had lost 1,216 soldiers in combat
since 1982; of these 559 were killed while Israel occupied the
security zone after 1985. The SLA was crushed and
Hezbollah quickly gained control of southern Lebanon.
The second Lebanon war broke out in 2006
and lasted 34 days, after Hezbollah abducted two Israeli
soldiers along the border.
Israel
suffered 121 military deaths, but 44 civilians in Israel
were killed by Hezbollah rocket attacks. Another 1,500
people were wounded in rocket attacks in northern Israel,
and 450 soldiers were hurt in the fighting in Lebanon.
Some
300,000 Israelis fled their homes to escape rocket attacks
on northern Israel. Israeli economists estimated
direct war damage at $3.5 billion.
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