Brazil Taking Hard Turn to Right

By Henry Srebrnik, [Saint John, NB] Telegraph Journal

Brazil, South America's largest country in land and population, has become a political basket case. Formerly governed as a military dictatorship before 1985, it has always been marred by corruption and economic dysfunction – problems that are only growing worse.

In the past decade, billions of dollars' worth of public contracts have been awarded on the basis of kickbacks for elected officials. Crime is out of control, with 175 murders a day. And the man who governed the country for most of this century, Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva, has been jailed for influence peddling and bribery.

It's little surprise, then, the country finds itself in political turmoil during the current election season. Many international observers are sounding alarms about the possible victory of Jair Bolsonaro of the Social Liberal Party, which takes a populist conservative stance and pledges to bring the country significantly to the right.

Bolsonaro served in the army for 17 years before going into politics in 1988 and has praised the former military dictatorship. Since 1991, he has served as a congressman for the state of Rio de Janeiro, winning re-election six times.

Critics have accused him of inciting sexism, homophobia and racism. He says he “loves” U.S. President Donald Trump and has vowed to "drain the swamp" in the capital, Brasilia – language common from populist leaders in many countries who vow to take power back from out-of-touch elites.

The Social Liberal Party's slogan is "Brazil Above Everything, God Above Everyone."

Like France, Brazil has a two-stage process for electing the president. There is an open field in the first round and, if no candidate earns more than 50 per cent of the vote, a "run-off" second round between the top two finishers is held.

Voting in Brazilian elections is compulsory.

Round 1 was held Sunday. Out of a pack of 13 candidates, Bolsonaro emerged with 46.1 per cent of the vote, despite spending a large part of the campaign in hospital after being stabbed at a rally in September.

Sao Paulo mayor Fernando Haddad, representing the Workers’ Party, which governed from 2003 to 2016, was a distant second at 29.1 per cent.

Bolsonaro seems poised to cruise to victory in the second round on Oct. 28, given his strong showing last weekend. To defeat him, opponents will have to rally a coalition to the Workers' Party, which many see as responsible for Brazil's malaise.

Certainly, Bolsonaro is a divisive figure. He has demonized his opponents on the left as corrupt and inept radicals. Until early August, he did not even have a running mate because traditional parties and politicians found him too extreme.

But that's all changed now. He emerged as the front-runner in this race because his pledge to crack down on crime and political corruption resounded with millions of voters. In this, he is striking a common note for populist candidates in many of the world's democracies.

The next three weeks will be fierce. Brazil seems on the precipice of another period of political volatility.