In the states of the Middle East, four types of regimes are on offer:
Theocracies such as Iran, which is governed by Shia clerics; rule by a
strongman -- the Assads in Syria are an example; kings with a modicum of
legitimacy, such as Abdullah II in Jordan; finally, fragile and – if history is
any guide – short- lived democratic regimes, as in today’s Tunisia.
Should any of them collapse, the most likely outcome is a descent into
anarchy and violence – witness today’s Libya.
The downfall of Moammar Gadhafi in Libya in 2011 produced, not
democracy, but chaos, with conflicts along regional, tribal and linguistic lines.
Libya is now a failed state with rival groups battling for control of
the country and its oil riches.
In August clashes between rival armed groups in Tripoli plunged Libya into yet deeper chaos, casting serious doubt as to whether the war-wracked country is ready to hold planned elections later this year.
On August
27, fierce fighting erupted in the capital’s southern districts after the
Seventh Brigade, an armed group based in Tarhouna, southeast of Tripoli,
launched a surprise offensive against rival militias.
By Sept.
23 at least 115 people had been killed in clashes between rival factions in
Tripoli, Libya’s health ministry said.
The
fighting pitted the Seventh Brigade against the Tripoli Revolutionaries’
Brigades (TRB) and the Nawasi Brigade, two of the capital’s largest armed
groups.
The
country now has two rival legislatures - the internationally recognised
Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA) and the eastern-based House
of Representatives (HOR) in Benghazi. Each has its own central bank and
national oil company.
The head of the GNA is Prime Minister Fayez al-Serraj, while General Khalifa Haftar of the
self-styled Libyan National Army runs the east.
While
armed groups in the western part of the country technically have pledged
allegiance to the GNA, that doesn't mean that they will heed civilian
authorities’ instructions.
“Everybody
is under the GNA government because the Ministry of Interior and Ministry of
Defence pay out salaries but nobody takes orders from them,” remarked Tarek
Megerisi, a political researcher specialising in Libya. They are all “vying for
a piece of the pie.”
Emadeddin
Muntasser, a Libyan political analyst, concurs. “The GNA is a paper government
with no influence of events.”
Wolfram
Lacher of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs has
identified four groups that exercise disproportionate power in the GNA’s part
of Libya: the TRB, the Nawasi Brigade, the Special Deterrence Force and the Abu
Slim unit of the Central Security apparatus.
This has
angered rival militias such as the Seventh Brigade, who feel like they have
been marginalised and dealt with unjustly, as well as being at risk of losing
access to state funds.
They stated
that they “reject the rule of militias inside Tripoli.” So the fighting will,
unfortunately, continue. And don’t hold your breath waiting for elections.
Libya is destined to be a failed state for years, perhaps even decades to come.
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